Murann isnt a place people choose; its where theyre trapped. The narrative introduction confirms that while Athkatlas collapse sent refugees fleeing, the Iron Fleets blockade and dangerous overland routes leave Murann as the only viable shelter. Food shortages and xenophobia dont break immersion; they reflect the reality of crisis zones, where desperate people endure oppression because alternatives are worse and likely mean DEATH. Traders stay for wartime profits, mages cling to the Guild for survival, adventurers and sellswords have it reasonably good if theyre competent enough.
Refugees fled primarily north and east. Murann is south, and getting there involves passing overland through Purskul, Imnescar (first to get overrun), the Small Teeth (where the horde originated), and Trademeet, or sea travel. For those from Athkatla, travelling overland or by barge up the Alandor or the Esmel to Crimmor, Purskul, or Esmeltaran would've all been alternatives. Murann is only the choice when you're already in Southern Amn and wanted more protection than Trademeet could offer.
Murann was a prime target when the Winter Horde first began to stir, only they went north first. It still is a prime target, cut off from Northern Amn and with only puny Trademeet as the only buffer overland and completely vulnerable by sea. It is the only viable shelter in Southern Amn, but with its precarious position, you'd expect refugees to swarm the Tethyrian borders either to get elsewhere in Amn or into Tethyr itself.
Food shortages and xenophobia are sensible enough, ignoring the part where Murann is a Selûnite-majority city that rejects the religion's central dogma. The continuing arrival of people from abroad who then stay breaks immersion. They somehow made it in, so why couldn't others make it out?
I dont see whats not believable here. What isnt immersive about this? The harshness isnt an oversight; its deliberate AND fun.
You seem to think I want the setting to be less harsh. I'm not sure where that was said. What I see are plot holes that can be remedied by adding IC positives in other respects, as my first suggestion pointed out. More reasons for mages to actually want to stay here, such as region-specific arcane mysteries to solve or resources to find, won't change the fact that casting a spell in public still means death. Raising the stakes in some way to give churches more of a reason to reluctantly put up with the tyranny could make the setting seem grimmer, not less. The Scar, for instance, is a mystery seemingly unique to the region that would draw foreign interest, but it's not part of the narrative introduction but is instead framed as an issue for the elves. It doesn't have to be turned into something bigger than it is, but other such narrative hooks can exist.
Getting to Murann (
https://discord.com/channels/460557954148597782/1244146240849973339/1356443033213866025) is dangerous, so why would the journey from Murann be any different? The NPC masses, mages, civilians or otherwise, have no choice but to remain. They presumably lack the coin to travel, and dont have the strength that the adventurers and sellswords have to leave. If theyve just arrived here, this is probably the only semblance of safety theyve felt in a while. They wouldnt be quick to leave again.
It's been ten months since the clock started ticking in the setting. That's plenty of time for people to start getting antsy again. The Winter Horde has been gathering strength the entire time. Southern Amn is itching to secede or defect to Tethyr. The trading routes are slowly reopening. Foreign imports have somehow been getting in, so there are clearly ways out.